7 of probably the most ludicrous claims from the Cybercab launch

Tesla’s “We, Robot” event showcased three main products. We had been launched to the Cybercab, Tesla’s totally self-driving autonomous taxi. Elon Musk additionally unveiled the Robovan, which is a Cybercab, solely larger and weirder-looking. And Elon completed the present by bringing in a military of scary Optimus robots that may at some point play board video games together with your children and wipe down your kitchen island.

For a person with lots to say, Elon’s supply was low vitality, however regardless of the muted presentation, there have been some absolute gems to be discovered. That is as a result of Elon managed to throw in some actually outrageous claims all through the presentation that lasted beneath an hour. Listed here are seven of Elon Musk’s most ridiculous claims throughout the Cybercab launch.

1 The Optimus robotic would be the largest product ever of any type

I believe the wheel might need one thing to say about that

Tesla

Let’s begin with one of the ludicrous claims of all. This one is so large that it must be quoted precisely. Elon Musk, with a straight face, acknowledged the next about his Optimus robotic:

“I believe this would be the largest product ever, of any type.”

Let’s simply put that into context. There are some severe contenders already for probably the most important product ever of any type. Two of the three merchandise showcased on the We, Robotic occasion used wheels, and the wheel certainly needs to be in with a shout, proper? In response to Elon, his robotic that may barely stroll with out wanting prefer it’s about to fall over, will likely be larger than the wheel, a product that has been used for 1000’s of years. Positive it can, Elon.

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2 Each one of many eight billion individuals of Earth will need an Optimus buddy

Do we actually desire a robotic military of billions?

Tesla

Elon additionally claims that “each one of many eight billion individuals of Earth will need an Optimus buddy.” Actually, some could even need two. That is though the Optimus robotic is more likely to value $30,000 when constructed at scale. I am positive for those who requested somebody at present dwelling in a conflict zone or affected by famine what they might most wish to spend $30,000 on, the reply would undoubtedly be a daunting humanoid robotic.

There is a quite simple option to show that Elon’s assertion is not true. I can inform you proper now I do not need one. There isn’t any means that I need to personal a humanoid robotic constructed by an organization that may’t even make a workable truck. Having loved the numerous hilarious posts on r/CyberStuck on Reddit, there is no means that a minimum of certainly one of these Optimus robots is not going to blow up, catch hearth, or begin telling you to place down your weapons and that you’ve got 20 seconds to conform, just like the ED-209 in RoboCop.

If I do not need an Optimus buddy, which I do not, then that declare that eight billion individuals will need one cannot be true; it is going to be 7,999,999,999 at most.

3 There’s an 80% chance that digital tremendous intelligence will not be unhealthy

60% of the time, it really works each time

Terminator

This was a throwaway remark, however it’s one which Elon has made earlier than. In response to him, there’s an 80% likelihood digital tremendous intelligence will likely be a pressure for good. Sadly, the flip aspect of because of this there is a one in 5 likelihood that AI will turn into self-aware and launch nukes in opposition to us.

It is unclear the place Elon has pulled these figures from. He could have requested Grok AI to determine it out, so it is virtually actually extremely correct. If what he says is true, then for the love of God, shut down all of the AI chatbots proper now as a result of a one-in-five likelihood of AI destroying us all appears worryingly excessive. By no means inform me the percentages.

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4 Anybody will have the ability to have any services they need

Who’s paying for the facility, Elon?

Tesla

There appears to be lots of people in the intervening time saying that know-how will usher in an age of unimaginable prosperity. Solely just lately, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, the person behind ChatGPT, claimed in a weblog submit that “sooner or later, everybody’s lives could be higher than anybody’s life is now.” Elon is providing an identical view of the longer term; with Optimus robots doing all the roles for us, it can usher in a brand new daybreak the place “anybody will have the ability to have any services they need; it is going to be an age of abundance.”

The flaw on this plan is that even with robots doing all of the work at no cost, services nonetheless require uncooked supplies and vitality, each of which value cash. It is unlikely that robots changing people getting paid peanuts to make your iPhone in a manufacturing unit in China will imply you can purchase the iPhone 19 for $10. It is fascinating that each one the people who appear to be saying that tech will carry a brand new daybreak of prosperity are additionally those promoting that tech. Possibly it can transform true — for them, a minimum of.

5 Your autonomous automobile will likely be used ten instances extra usually than your present automobile

The thought is sweet, however the figures do not add up

Tesla

This one is a bit contentious as a result of, to some extent, the declare has the potential to be true. Nonetheless, the numbers simply do not appear so as to add up. Elon factors out that the typical particular person makes use of their automobile for about 10 hours out of the 168 hours in every week. If a automobile can drive itself, then it may very well be used as a lot as ten instances greater than vehicles are at present, making your automobile ten instances extra precious.

At first look, this appears so as to add up. In case your automobile can drive itself, then whenever you’re not utilizing it, you might put it to work as a taxi, driving round and taking individuals the place they should go, and incomes you some cash whilst you sleep or work. It would not appear unreasonable that your automobile may very well be used for 100 hours within the week on this means.

There are just a few points right here, nonetheless. Firstly, for those who’ve spent $30,000 on a self-driving automobile, would you like complete strangers driving round in it for 90 hours every week? Even for those who do, there’s an issue with demand. You let individuals use your automobile as a taxi for 90 hours every week, no drawback. Your neighbor does the identical. So does the neighbor on the opposite aspect. Three homes alone can supply practically 300 hours of rides every week. It would not take lengthy earlier than the accessible hours from all of those autonomous vehicles vastly outstrip the demand, which means that your automobile will find yourself sitting idle in your storage in spite of everything.

If by some means demand matches provide, the issues are even worse. If each automobile is used for ten instances as a lot as it’s at present, then the roads may have ten instances the quantity of site visitors — some utopian future.

6 Uber drivers will turn into automobile shepherds with flocks of vehicles

If one Uber driver has 20 vehicles, 19 Uber drivers are out of a job

Tesla/Pocket-Lint

Should you’re an Uber driver frightened about dropping your supply of revenue, don’t fret, Elon has you coated. He envisions that immediately’s Uber drivers will turn into tomorrow’s automobile shepherds. That is proper, Uber drivers sooner or later may have fleets of 10-20 vehicles that they are going to take care of like a shepherd tends to his flock.

By no means thoughts {that a} fleet of 20 Cybercabs would set you again round $600,000, cash that the typical Uber driver is unlikely to have mendacity round. As soon as once more, it is a difficulty of demand. If an Uber driver immediately goes from one automobile to a fleet of 20, then they’re doing the work of 19 different Uber drivers, which means the opposite 19 are successfully put out of enterprise. It isn’t doable for each driver immediately to run a fleet of 20 vehicles and nonetheless have sufficient demand to make it financially viable.

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7 The Cybercab will likely be prepared earlier than 2027

Tesla’s observe file says in any other case

Tesla

I did not suppose any declare may very well be extra unlikely than Elon’s scary robots being the largest product ever, however he managed to high it with an much more unlikely declare. That is proper, Elon mentioned that the Cybercab will likely be prepared “earlier than 2027.” Let’s check out latest historical past. In 2014, Elon mentioned that the Cybertruck could be prepared in 4-5 years. 2018 got here and went, however no Cybertruck. 2019, once we ought to have been capable of begin shopping for them, was when the primary idea Cybertruck was unveiled. It wasn’t till the very finish of 2023 that the primary Cybertrucks rolled precariously out of Tesla’s showrooms.

The Cybertruck is principally only a large automobile with a hideous-looking physique, hardly an enormous technological leap. The Cybercab goals to be a state-of-the-art, totally self-driving autonomous automobile that should bear rigorous security testing earlier than individuals go anyplace close to one. The probabilities of that occuring earlier than 2027 are slim to none.